Author
In 2024, the overall recognition rate decreased to 61% from 66% in 2023 (and 91% in 2022) of all decisions on the merits. Both refugee recognition and subsidiary protection rates continued to decrease. Refugee recognition decreased to 0.7%[1] as well as subsidiary protection (humanitarian status) granting, which fell to 60% in 2024.[2] The rejection rate reached 39%,[3] when considering only decisions issued on the substance of asylum claims. Among the top 5 countries of origin of asylum seekers entering Bulgaria in 2024 remained Syria and Afghanistan. These two nationalities together represented 79% of the total arrivals (62% from Syria and 16% from Afghanistan). Except for Syrian nationals, over an extended period before 2022, recognition rates for other nationalities remained low. Applicants from Afghanistan and Türkiye were treated discriminatorily and their cases overwhelmingly considered as manifestly unfounded, which resulted in extremely low recognition rates.[4] The most radical change in recognition rates related to Syrian applicants. Since 2014 Syrian applicants have been treated as prima facie refugees with the majority of them granted subsidiary protection based on the understanding that they flee from internal armed conflict.[5] Starting from mid-2024 the SAR initiated individual assessment of Syrian applications, which resulted in a 19% rejection rate and 81% recognition (0.5% refugee recognition rate and 80% subsidiary protection). After the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024, the SAR halted interviewing and status determination of Syrian applicants until 31 January 2025, when these were resumed on an individual assessment basis.[6]
Afghanistan
Between 2016 and 2021, Afghanistan has been the top country of origin of asylum applicants in Bulgaria. This changed in 2022, when the top country of origin became Syria. Yet, during this period of time, or arguably because of it, applications from Afghan nationals were arbitrarily considered as manifestly unfounded. They were predominantly channelled in the Accelerated Procedure and successively rejected, to the point that Bulgaria registered the lowest recognition rates for Afghans in Europe – 2.5% in 2016, 1.5% in 2017, 4% in 2019, and 1.8% in 2020. In the majority of cases, protection was granted following court decisions overturning the refusals of the asylum administration. The “striking discrepancy between the Bulgarian and the EU average recognition rate for Afghans” has been mentioned by the European Commission,[7] as well as jurisdictions in other Member States, as a matter of concern.[8]
Since mid- 2021, decisions on Afghan cases began to gradually change, also possibly due to the presence of some high-profile cases and increased claims regarding personal risk of persecution. As a result, the annual recognition rate of Afghan applicants reached a national record of 10%, although still far below the average EU recognition rate.
In 2022 for the first time in a decade the Afghan applicants were treated in a non-discriminatory way, with 49% overall recognition rate (14% refugee recognition rate and 35% subsidiary protection rate) and 51% rejection rate. However, in both 2023 and 2024, recognition rates for Afghan nationals dropped significantly once again, with only 10% receiving protection (0.3% refugee recognition rate and 9.7% subsidiary protection rate), while the rejection rate surged to 90%.[9] The majority (86%) of Afghan applicants[10] continued to abscond before receiving a first instance decision, which was issued on the merits in 14% of cases.[11]
Türkiye
Similar to the situation of Afghan asylum seekers, the applications for protection lodged by Turkish nationals were treated as manifestly unfounded and considered as originating from a “safe country of origin” for many years (from 2014 to 2021), notwithstanding the fact that the Bulgarian asylum system presently does not officially apply any of the safe country concepts.[12] Prior to 2024, Bulgaria had not adopted a list of “safe countries or origin” since 2005.[13] Following the adoption[14] in April 2024 of the safe country of origin and safe third countries’ national lists, Türkiye is considered both a safe country of origin and a safe third country.
Moreover, despite settled case-law whereby the lodging of an application for international protection entitles the asylum seeker to apply for an immediate release from detention, many Turkish asylum seekers were kept in immigration detention centres for the entire duration of their asylum procedure, in violation of national law. They were subsequently subject to negative decisions and deported back to Türkiye. In such cases, the immigration police made every effort to prevent Turkish detainees from accessing lawyers and legal advice. This practice has been publicly recognised and acknowledged by the former Prime Minister,[15] and seemed to be the result of an informal political agreement between the Bulgarian and Turkish governments.[16] It was a long-standing practice of the Bulgarian authorities to prevent the Turkish nationals from access to procedure and international protection, as well as to expedite their return to the country of origin including, in several cases, in violation of the non-refoulement principle. In return, the Turkish authorities divert to a large extent the migratory pressure from the Bulgarian border to the Greek one.[17] It was presumed that similar arrangements were reached mid-2023, since after the summer peak of 5,025 individuals who entered Bulgaria during August alone,[18] the number of the new arrivals gradually decreased to only 546 individuals (-88%) in December 2023.[19]
The rejection rate of Turkish asylum seekers increased over the years, to reach 100% both in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, just one Turkish national was granted protection in Bulgaria. In 2021, there were little changes for Turkish applicants despite the altered political situation. If not immediately readmitted, Turkish asylum seekers still faced a 92% rejection rate.
In July 2021, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled that Bulgarian authorities had violated European human rights law by summarily returning a man to Türkiye, thus condemning the longstanding practice of denying Turkish refugees protection from persecution and handing them straight back to Türkiye.[20] On 8 July 2021 the MOI’s General Border Police Directorate, UNHCR and the Bulgarian Helsinki Committee signed an annex to 2010 Tripartite Memorandum of Understanding including the readmission procedures in the scope of the national monitoring. The aim was to assist the third country nationals who wish to apply for asylum in Bulgaria to be safeguarded from refoulement perpetrated by the means of readmission, among whom the Turkish nationals were designated as a special target group.
In 2022, a gradual improvement in Turkish applicants’ treatment was registered. Just 33% of cases were dealt as manifestly unfounded in accelerated procedure, while in 2021 these were 83% of the decided cases. Even so, the overall recognition rate they enjoyed was quite modest, representing 16% of the total decisions (5% refugee status and 11% subsidiary protection), while the rejection rate remained significantly high (84% of the total). In 2023, their treatment once more deteriorated – a 100% rejection rate was registered, with 58% of Turkish applicants receiving a rejection in accelerated procedures after their claim was considered as manifestly unfounded.[21] This might be related to the renewed assistance by the Turkish authorities to prevent the migratory pressure on the Bulgarian border in the second half of the year (see above in this paragraph). In 2024, the recognition of Turkish applicants again improved, with a 14% overall recognition rate (0% refugee recognition rate and 14% subsidiary protection rate) and an 86% rejection rate. Presumably high rejection rates were among the reason for the high absconding rate of Turkish applicants, which in 2024 was 50%.
Iraq
For many years, Iraqi applicants enjoyed relatively fair assessments and an overall recognition rate ranging from 40% to 55%.[22] However, in 2017 their recognition drastically dropped. After some fluctuations in the following years, in 2021 the situation further deteriorated, as their overall recognition rate dropped to 13% (8% refugee status, 5% subsidiary protection), corresponding to an 87% rejection rate. In general, the arguments in the negative decisions of both the SAR and the Courts refer to the defeat of ISIS and to improvements in the safety and security across the country’s conflict areas and war zones. Claims by applicants from Central and Southern Iraq are considered manifestly unfounded in general. In 2022, the situation changed and Iraqi applicants enjoyed 45% overall recognition (13% refugee recognition and 32% subsidiary protection rates) with a 54% rejection rate. In 2023, the recognition rates dropped to 10% (2% refugee recognition and 8% subsidiary protection rates) with a 90% rejection rate. Moreover, it was publicly recognised that Bulgaria has been exploring possible diplomatic avenues to increase the possibility of both forced and voluntary returns and is in a process of consultation for concluding a Memorandum of Understanding with Iraq.[23] No information is available as to whether the memorandum was indeed agreed. Despite that, Iraq was not included[24] neither in the safe countries of origin list, nor in the list of safe third countries (see, Safe countries concepts) adopted in April. In 2024, Iraqi applications continued to be treated as manifestly unfounded in most cases. The recognition rate for these cases was of just 4.7% (0.2% refugee recognition and 4.5% subsidiary protection rates), with a 95.3% rejection rate.
Syria
Between 2014 to mid-2015, the SAR applied the so-called prima facie approach to assessing Syrian applications for protection as “manifestly well-founded”. This approach is no longer applied.
In 2023, Syrians continued to be the nationality with the highest recognition rate in the country, reaching 97% overall – out of which 1% concerned the granting of refugee status and 96% the granting of the subsidiary protection, with just 3% rate of rejection. In 2023, out of 12,416 Syrian applicants, who submitted asylum claims in Bulgaria, nearly 46% (5,759 individuals) had their decisions issued within the duration of the year. 31%[25] absconded prior their first instance decision to be issued.
This situation changed radically in October-December 2024 when the SAR announced[26] to have started applying an individual approach when assessing and determining Syrian asylum applications. During this period alone, the SAR issued in total 1,125 refusals to Syrian asylum seekers. After the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 the SAR suspended[27] until 31 January 2025 both to conduct interviews and issue decisions to Syrian nationals, however these were resumed in February 2025. In 2024, out of 7,646 Syrian applicants, who submitted asylum claims in Bulgaria, 81% (4,762 individuals) were granted protection, of whom 0,5% (24 individuals) were recognised as refugees, 80% (4,738 individuals) were granted subsidiary protection and 19% (1,125 individuals) were refused asylum.
Other nationalities
Applications of nationals from certain countries are treated as manifestly unfounded with low to zero recognition rates and overwhelming rejection rates, such as Algeria, Tunisia and Pakistan (100% rejection rate), Morocco (99.5%) and Egypt (98.6%). In the majority of the cases for these nationalities, the status determination is conducted under an Accelerated Procedure.
[1] Previous refugee recognition rates: 1% in 2023; 2% in 2022; 4% in 2021; 13% in 2020; 13% in 2019; 15% in 2018; 14% in 2017; 25% in 2016; 76% in 2015; 69% in 2014.
[2] Previous subsidiary protection rates: 65% in 2023; 89% in 2022; 57% in 2021; 47% in 2020; 15% in 2019; 20% in 2018; 18% in 2017; 19% in 2016; 14% in 2015; 25% in 2014.
[3] Previous rejection rates: 39% in 2023; 9% in 2022; 39% in 2021; 39% in 2020; 71% in 2019; 65% in 2018; 68% in 2017; 56% in 2016; 10% in 2015; 6% in 2014.
[4] AIDA update on Bulgaria, April 2024, Differential treatment of specific nationalities in the procedure.
[5] Article 15(c) of 2011/95/EC Directive.
[6] SAR, reg. №АД-07-7 from 14 January 2025.
[7] European Commission, Measures for improvement of the Bulgarian asylum system, 6 July 2017, available at: http://bit.ly/2EudWMH, 7.
[8] See e.g. (Switzerland) Federal Administrative Court, Decision E-3356/2018, 27 June 2018; (Belgium) Council of Alien Law Litigation, Decision No 185 279, 11 April 2017.
[9] 2023 AIDA update: 14% overall recognition with 5% refugee recognition rate and 9% subsidiary protection rate vs 65% rejection / 2022 AIDA update: 49% overall recognition with 14% refugee recognition rate and 35% subsidiary protection rate vs 51% rejection rate.
[10] 1,969 discontinued procedures out of all 2,296 decisions taken in 2024 with respect to Afghan nationals.
[11] See, Table Statistics, page 9 of this report: 327 Afghan decisions on the merits.
[12] Bulgaria has not adopted a list of “safe countries or origin” since 2001; the last national annual lists were adopted with Decision №205/19.04.2000 of the Council of Ministers, in which Türkiye was not enlisted as a safe country of origin nor as a third safe country.
[13] The last national annual lists were adopted with Decision №329/2005 of the Council of Ministers, in which Türkiye was not enlisted as a safe country of origin nor as a third safe country.
[14] COM №247 from 3 April 2024.
[15] Businessinsider, ‘Strasbourg Court Quizzes Bulgaria over Gullenists Extradition’, 25 April 2018, available at: https://bit.ly/2S0ZPGU.
[16] Businessinsider, ‘Turkey’s plan to flood Europe with millions of refugees is a real and dangerous threat, officials warn’, 11 October 2019, available at: https://bit.ly/31szogj.
[17] Offnews, The Turkish Ambassador promised to sustain the migrant pressure towards Bulgaria at a zero level, 3 May 2020, available in Bulgarian at: https://bit.ly/397W2Ph.
[18] MOI statistics, December 2023, available in Bulgarian at: https://bit.ly/48C57wC.
[19] Ibid.
[20] ECtHR, D v. Bulgaria (application №29447/17), Judgement of 20 July 2021. See also: ecchr.eu, ‘European Court of Human Rights: Bulgaria’s pushback practice violates human rights’, 20 July 2021, available at: https://bit.ly/3niDVyf.
[21] SAR, reg. No. №РД05-31 from 15 January 2024.
[22] For example, in 2015: 22% refugee status, 20% subsidiary protection; 2016: 33% refugee status, 10% subsidiary protection.
[23] European Commission, Reporting on progress made on the Pilot Project for fast asylum and return procedures with Bulgaria, available at: https://bit.ly/4bTun4k.
[24] COM №247 from 3 April 2024.
[25] Out of 23,601 Syrian applicants dealt in 2023 (12,416 applied in 2023; 11,185 pending from 2022) the procedure was terminated with respect to 7,408 applicants due to absconding.
[26] 134th Coordination Meeting, held on 19 December 2024.
[27] Ibid.