Author
In 2025, the overall recognition rate decreased to 20% from 61% in 2024, 66% in 2023 and 91% in 2022 of all decisions on the merits. Both refugee recognition and subsidiary protection rates continued to decrease. Refugee recognition decreased to 0.1%[1] and subsidiary protection (defined as ‘humanitarian status’ under national law) rates fell to 19% in 2025.[2] The rejection rate reached 80%,[3] when considering only decisions issued on the substance of asylum claims. The top 5 countries of origin of asylum seekers entering Bulgaria in 2025 were Morocco, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Egypt. For over a decade, applicants from Syria and Afghanistan constituted the majority of asylum applications in Bulgaria. The shift was caused by several factors. First, Afghan nationals continued to face reduced recognition in 2025, as in 2024 and 2023, with an overall recognition rate of just 4% (0.3% refugee status and 3.7% subsidiary protection) and a 96% rejection rate.[4] The majority (78%) of Afghan applicants[5] continued to abscond before receiving a first instance decision, which was issued on the merits in 22% of the caseload.[6] Additionally, more than 1.5 million Afghans have been forced back to Afghanistan from Iran in 2025[7], followed by a blockade of the border between the two countries thus preventing to a large extent onward movements to EU. The most radical change, however, related to an overturn in recognition rates of Syrian applicants. Since 2014, Syrian applicants have been treated as prima facie refugees with the majority of them granted subsidiary protection based on the understanding that they flee from internal armed conflict.[8] Starting from mid-2024 the SAR initiated individual assessment of Syrian applications, which in 2025 resulted in a 64,2% rejection and 35,8% recognition rate (1.8% refugee recognition rate and 34% subsidiary protection).
Afghanistan
Between 2016 and 2021, Afghanistan has been the top country of origin of asylum applicants in Bulgaria. This changed in 2022, when the top country of origin became Syria. Yet, during this period, or arguably due to the focus on the situation in Syria, applications from Afghan nationals were arbitrarily considered as manifestly unfounded. They were predominantly channelled in the Accelerated Procedure and successively rejected, to the point that Bulgaria registered the lowest recognition rates for Afghans in Europe – 2.5% in 2016, 1.5% in 2017, 4% in 2019, and 1.8% in 2020. In the majority of cases, protection was granted following court decisions overturning the refusals of the asylum administration. The “striking discrepancy between the Bulgarian and the EU average recognition rate for Afghans” has been mentioned by the European Commission,[9] as well as jurisdictions in other Member States, as a matter of concern.[10]
Since mid- 2021, decisions on Afghan cases began to gradually change, also possibly due to the presence of some high-profile cases and increased claims regarding personal risk of persecution. As a result, the annual recognition rate of Afghan applicants reached a national record of 10%, although still far below the average EU recognition rate. In 2022 for the first time in a decade the Afghan applicants were treated in a non-discriminatory way, with 49% overall recognition rate (14% refugee recognition rate and 35% subsidiary protection rate) and 51% rejection rate.
However, in 2023, 2024 and especially in 2025 recognition rates for Afghan nationals started to drop once more.[11] In 2025, only 4% substantive protection rate (0.3% refugee recognition rate and 3.7% subsidiary protection rate), while the rejection rate surged to 96%.The majority (78%) of Afghan applicants[12] continued to abscond before receiving a first instance decision, which was issued on the merits only in 22% of cases.[13]
Türkiye
Similar to the situation of Afghan asylum seekers, the applications for protection lodged by Turkish nationals were treated as manifestly unfounded and considered as originating from a “safe country of origin” for many years (from 2014 to 2021), notwithstanding the fact that the Bulgarian asylum system presently does not officially apply any of the safe country concepts.[14] Prior to 2024, Bulgaria had not adopted a list of “safe countries or origin” since 2005.[15] Following the adoption[16] in April 2024 of the safe country of origin and safe third countries’ national lists, Türkiye is considered both a safe country of origin and a safe third country.
Moreover, despite settled case-law whereby the lodging of an application for international protection entitles the asylum seeker to apply for an immediate release from detention, many Turkish asylum seekers were kept in immigration detention centres for the entire duration of their asylum procedure, in violation of national law. They were subsequently subject to negative decisions and deported back to Türkiye. In such cases, the immigration police made every effort to prevent Turkish detainees from accessing lawyers and legal advice. This practice has been publicly recognised and acknowledged by the former Prime Minister,[17] and seemed to be the result of an informal political agreement between the Bulgarian and Turkish governments.[18] It was a long-standing practice of the Bulgarian authorities to prevent the Turkish nationals from access to procedure and international protection, as well as to expedite their return to the country of origin including, in several cases, in violation of the non-refoulement principle. In return, the Turkish authorities divert to a large extent the migratory pressure from the Bulgarian border to the Greek one.[19] It was presumed that similar arrangements were reached mid-2023, since after the summer peak of 5,025 individuals who entered Bulgaria during August alone,[20] the number of the new arrivals gradually decreased to only 546 individuals (-88%) in December 2023.[21]
In July 2021, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled that Bulgarian authorities had violated European human rights law by summarily returning a man to Türkiye, thus condemning the longstanding practice of denying Turkish refugees protection from persecution and handing them straight back to Türkiye.[22] On 8 July 2021 the MOI’s General Border Police Directorate, UNHCR and the Bulgarian Helsinki Committee signed an annex to 2010 Tripartite Memorandum of Understanding including the readmission procedures in the scope of the national monitoring. The aim was to assist the third country nationals who wish to apply for asylum in Bulgaria to be safeguarded from refoulement perpetrated by the means of readmission, among whom the Turkish nationals were designated as a special target group.
In 2022, a gradual improvement in Turkish applicants’ treatment was registered. Just 33% of cases were dealt as manifestly unfounded in accelerated procedure, while in 2021 these were 83% of the decided cases. In 2023, their treatment once more deteriorated – a 100% rejection rate was registered, with 58% of Turkish applicants receiving a rejection in accelerated procedures after their claim was considered as manifestly unfounded.[23] This might be related to the renewed assistance by the Turkish authorities to prevent the migratory pressure on the Bulgarian border in the second half of the year (see above in this paragraph). In 2024, the recognition of Turkish applicants slightly improved, with a 14% overall recognition rate (0% refugee recognition rate and 14% subsidiary protection rate) and an 86% rejection rate. In 2025, once more registered a 100% rejection rate[24] was once more registered for Turkish applicants, with 82% of applications dealt in an accelerated procedure, and 18% with examined in a regular procedure.
Iraq
For many years, Iraqi applicants enjoyed relatively fair assessments and an overall recognition rate ranging from 40% to 55%.[25] However, in 2017 their recognition drastically dropped. In general, the arguments in the negative decisions of both asylum authority and the Courts refer to the defeat of ISIS and to improvements in the safety and security across the country’s conflict areas and war zones. Claims by applicants from Central and Southern Iraq are considered manifestly unfounded in general. Moreover, it was publicly recognised that Bulgaria has been exploring possible diplomatic avenues to increase the possibility of both forced and voluntary returns and is in a process of consultation for concluding a Memorandum of Understanding with Iraq.[26] No information is available as to whether the memorandum was indeed agreed. Despite that, Iraq was not included[27] neither in the safe countries of origin list, nor in the list of safe third countries (see, F. The safe countries concepts) adopted in April 2024. In 2025, Iraqi applications continued to be treated as manifestly unfounded in most cases, with 94% of applications dealt with in accelerated procedures. The recognition rate for Iraqi cases was of just 1.7% (0.2% refugee recognition and 1.5% subsidiary protection rates), with an overall 98.3% rejection rate.
Syria
Between 2014 to mid-2015, the SAR established the so-called prima facie approach to assessing Syrian applications for protection as “manifestly well-founded”. From 2015[28] to 2023[29] including, Syrian applicants topped the chart of the nationalities with highest recognition rates ranging, respectively, between 99% to 98% recognition. This approach is no longer applied.
This situation changed radically in October-December 2024 when the SAR announced[30] to have started applying an individual approach when assessing and determining Syrian asylum applications. During this period alone, the SAR issued in total 1,125 refusals to Syrian asylum seekers. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 the SAR suspended[31] until 31 January 2025 both to conduct interviews and issue decisions to Syrian nationals. However, these were resumed in February 2025 Therefore, in 2025 Syrian applicants registered a 38% overall recognition rate (1.8% refugee recognition rate and 34% subsidiary protection rate) and an 64.2% rejection rate. This approach, applied since mid-2024, drastically reduced with 89% the new arrivals from Syria in 2025[32] in comparison with the previous year, and also increased to 30% their absconding and secondary movement.
Other nationalities
Applications of nationals from certain countries are treated as manifestly unfounded with low to zero recognition rates and overwhelming rejection rates, such as Algeria, Tunisia and Bangladesh (100% rejection rate), Morocco (99.5%), Egypt (98.6%) and Pakistan (95%). In the majority of the cases for these nationalities, status determination is conducted under an Accelerated Procedure.
[1] Previous refugee recognition rates: 0,7% in 2024; 1% in 2023; 2% in 2022; 4% in 2021; 13% in 2020; 13% in 2019; 15% in 2018; 14% in 2017; 25% in 2016; 76% in 2015; 69% in 2014.
[2] Previous subsidiary protection rates: 60% in 2024; 65% in 2023; 89% in 2022; 57% in 2021; 47% in 2020; 15% in 2019; 20% in 2018; 18% in 2017; 19% in 2016; 14% in 2015; 25% in 2014.
[3] Previous rejection rates: 39% in 2024; 39% in 2023; 9% in 2022; 39% in 2021; 39% in 2020; 71% in 2019; 65% in 2018; 68% in 2017; 56% in 2016; 10% in 2015; 6% in 2014.
[4] 2024 AIDA update: 10% overall recognition rate with 0.3% refugee recognition rate and 9.7% subsidiary protection rate and a 90% rejection rate; 2023 AIDA update: 14% overall recognition with 5% refugee recognition rate and 9% subsidiary protection rate vs 65% rejection / 2022 AIDA update: 49% overall recognition with 14% refugee recognition rate and 35% subsidiary protection rate vs 51% rejection rate.
[5] 1,134 discontinued procedures out of all 1,461 decisions taken in 2025 with respect to Afghan nationals.
[6] See, Table Statistics, pages 8-12 of this report: 1,461 Afghan decisions on the merits.
[7] Office of the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights, UN experts appalled by mass forced returns of Afghan nationals, published on 18 July 2025, available here.
[8] Article 15(c) of 2011/95/EC Directive.
[9] European Commission, Measures for improvement of the Bulgarian asylum system, 6 July 2017, available at: http://bit.ly/2EudWMH, 7.
[10] See e.g. (Switzerland) Federal Administrative Court, Decision E-3356/2018, 27 June 2018; (Belgium) Council of Alien Law Litigation, Decision No 185 279, 11 April 2017.
[11] 2024 AIDA Update: 10% overall recognition rate with 0.3% refugee recognition rate and 9.7% subsidiary protection rate vs 90% rejection; 2023 AIDA update: 14% overall recognition with 5% refugee recognition rate and 9% subsidiary protection rate vs 65% rejection / 2022 AIDA update: 49% overall recognition with 14% refugee recognition rate and 35% subsidiary protection rate vs 51% rejection rate.
[12] 1,134 discontinued procedures out of all 1,461 decisions taken in 2025 with respect to Afghan nationals.
[13] See, Table Statistics, page 9 of this report: 327 Afghan decisions on the merits.
[14] Bulgaria has not adopted a list of “safe countries or origin” since 2001; the last national annual lists were adopted with Decision №205/19.04.2000 of the Council of Ministers, in which Türkiye was not enlisted as a safe country of origin nor as a third safe country.
[15] The last national annual lists were adopted with Decision №329/2005 of the Council of Ministers, in which Türkiye was not enlisted as a safe country of origin nor as a third safe country.
[16] COM №247 from 3 April 2024.
[17] Businessinsider, ‘Strasbourg Court Quizzes Bulgaria over Gullenists Extradition’, 25 April 2018, available at: https://bit.ly/2S0ZPGU.
[18] Businessinsider, ‘Turkey’s plan to flood Europe with millions of refugees is a real and dangerous threat, officials warn’, 11 October 2019, available at: https://bit.ly/31szogj.
[19] Offnews, The Turkish Ambassador promised to sustain the migrant pressure towards Bulgaria at a zero level, 3 May 2020, available in Bulgarian at: https://bit.ly/397W2Ph.
[20] MOI statistics, December 2023, available in Bulgarian at: https://bit.ly/48C57wC.
[21] Ibid.
[22] ECtHR, D v. Bulgaria (application №29447/17), Judgement of 20 July 2021. See also: ecchr.eu, ‘European Court of Human Rights: Bulgaria’s pushback practice violates human rights’, 20 July 2021, available at: https://bit.ly/3niDVyf.
[23] SAR, reg. No. №РД05-31 from 15 January 2024.
[24] See, above Applications and granting of protection status at first instance Table, pages 11-12.
[25] For example, in 2015: 22% refugee status, 20% subsidiary protection; 2016: 33% refugee status, 10% subsidiary protection.
[26] European Commission, Reporting on progress made on the Pilot Project for fast asylum and return procedures with Bulgaria, available at: https://bit.ly/4bTun4k.
[27] COM №247 from 3 April 2024.
[28] 2015: 4520 refugee statuses, 802 subsidiary protection statuses, 61 refusals with respect to Syrian applicants.
[29] 2023: 72 refugee statuses, 5550 subsidiary protection statuses, 136 refusals with respect to Syrian applicants.
[30] 134th Coordination Meeting, held on 19 December 2024.
[31] Ibid.
[32] 2025: 823 Syrian applications; 2024: 7,646 Syrian applications.